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How to Research a Cryptocurrency

If you are coming from the world of stocks and bonds, you might be looking for ways to measure the value of a cryptocurrency that doesn’t just price speculation. Newcomers to the crypto world may be bombarded with “to the moon” price estimates and inundated with mentions of coins and tokens. Certainly, there is a scientific, rational, and analytical way of judging cryptocurrencies. Although stock markets have established price/earnings, assets/debt, return on equity, and other criteria to determine viability, the cryptocurrency market lacks many conventional analysis conventions. Experts who have been successful agree on some essential factors that are so basic, they can be considered the fundamentals of any cryptocurrency. And, technical analysis is helpful for any market.

This guide splits into two sections: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Links to additional research resources is provided at the end.

Cryptocurrency Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis means looking at the value of a cryptocurrency, not just its price. The goal is to determine if the crypto “deserves” its price. Most sources agree that the factors listed below are a good gauge for determining the fundamental value of a cryptocurrency:

  • Total supply in circulation: the number of coins/tokens available for trade.
  • Market cap: the quantity of total supply in circulation multiplied by the cryptocurrency price.
  • Maximum supply: the maximum quantity that will ever be created.
  • White paper: technical document detailing how a cryptocurrency works, its importance, and unique selling points.
  • Github repositories: Github is a platform that stores programming code and allows developers to upload code into repositories. 
  • Community channels: public forums dedicated to talking about cryptocurrencies or about a particular one.
  • Founders and developers: the team which manages a cryptocurrency.
  • Roadmap: future development plans for a cryptocurrency.

Economics

The law of supply and demand impacts the cryptocurrency market. It can make prices go up or down. Total supply in circulation, maximum supply, and demand usually influences a cryptocurrency’s price. Supply can be researched using sites like Coinmarketcap, but determining the level of demand requires looking at multiple factors. One consideration is transaction volume—comparing transaction counts and transaction values. Transaction volume should be trending upwards if a cryptocurrency is being adopted because more people are circulating greater quantities of a cryptocurrency. A website for analyzing transaction volume is Coinmetrics.io, which has a handy chart tool. Under Community Data, go to Network Data. Choose your desired cryptocurrency and select the data you want to view in the dropdown menus. Compare “Transactions, transfers, count” and “Transactions, transfers, value, USD” for transactions. You can also look at “Price, USD” and transactions data points to spot correlations. A crypto might be “undervalued” if price levels trend below transaction volume and “overvalued” if price levels trend above transaction volume.

Management

Research the developers and leaders of a cryptocurrency. How many programmers support a cryptocurrency? What are their professional backgrounds? Is there recent Github repository activity? The whitepaper should be readily available to the public and describe the technical operations and theorems behind a cryptocurrency, along with the market problem being solved. A roadmap indicates plans of focused improvements. Upgrades usually consist of better technical abilities (speed, security, integration, etc.) and nothing that’s investment-related.

Sentiment

How do bagholders feel about the cryptocurrency? Browsing community channels can yield insights about management, development, and more facts that can aid your research. Regulations and market events can dampen and hasten the adoption of a cryptocurrency. Browse positive and negative opinions; consider each side but always remain vigilant for fake influencer behavior. 

By combining information about economics, management, and sentiment for a cryptocurrency, you’re able to determine its fundamental value.

When is the best time to invest? Technical analysis answers that question.

Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis

The technical analysis considers an asset’s price history and applies to any marketplace where supply and demand have a strong impact, and fundamental analysis has no bearing on it.

Technical analysis is a complex subject, and it requires more than one section to cover it. Trading activity depends on understanding charts and price movements. This guide will cover the basics and then refer to other sources that explain cryptocurrency technical analysis better. This section will introduce the following basic elements of technical analysis: charts, candlesticks, channels & patterns, and trading volume.

Charts & Candlesticks

A technical price chart consists of a series of “candlesticks” that represent daily price movements. Price gains display as green bars, whereas price decreases display as red bars (sometimes price gains show as white, and price decreases show as black). The illustration below provides a visual explanation:

Trading chart candlestick infographic explanation

Channels & Patterns

Support and resistance levels show the average price points an asset does not break through or fall below. 

Support is a price level that an asset has repeatedly approached but never breached. The price point makes the asset stop falling because that’s when people want to repurchase assets. 

The resistance level is the price at which an asset’s value has approached more than once but never exceeded. It depicts price points where sellers are ready to sell, but buyers are less eager to purchase, resulting in a downward price movement. 

When support and resistance levels experience breakthroughs, it’s believed that charts will establish new levels.

Candlestick graphic

Patterns represent “candlestick” trends on a chart. Experienced traders spend a lot of time studying and comparing chart patterns because they believe specific patterns are recognizable and predictable. Technical analysis patterns are complex; therefore, we suggest consulting more particular resources for further understanding.

Trading Volume

Cryptocurrency trading volume is the quantitative indicator of buying and selling activities on exchanges. Private wallet transfers (ex: buying goods using cryptocurrency) are excluded from trading volume figures. Analyzing the movement of trade volume is very important for technical analysis. 

Further Reading

This article on cryptocurrency research scratches the surface. There are many perspectives about conducting fundamental and technical analysis. Here’s a list of resources that will deepen your understanding of specific topics and lead to more exciting discoveries about cryptocurrency.

Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis

Research Resources